When Identity Meets Rationality: The Arousal of Motivated System 2 Reasoning
Background
Classical dual-process theories assume that fast, intuitive System 1 often produces bias, whereas slow, deliberative System 2 corrects it. Evidence on motivated reasoning suggests a refinement: when beliefs are tied to identity, deliberation can intensify rather than reduce bias (motivated System 2 reasoning; MS2R).
Objective
To synthesize theory and evidence on when and why analytic reasoning amplifies identity-consistent judgments, and to highlight implications for health-related beliefs and misinformation.
Methods
Focused narrative review integrating findings from political, science-communication, and health literatures, including high-powered replications and resource-rational/approximate Bayesian models, to organize MS2R mechanisms, boundary conditions, and countermeasures. Identity-congruent evaluation of information is robust across domains (e.g., climate risk, vaccination, gun policy), whereas the strong claim that greater cognitive ability uniformly amplifies bias receives mixed support. We organized five proximate mechanisms that can yield MS2R: confirmation bias/motivated skepticism, cognitive dissonance rationalization, identity-protective cognition, expressive responding/instrumental rationality, and bounded resource-rational selective trust. MS2R is most likely when identity stakes are high, evidence is ambiguous, accuracy incentives are weak, affective threat gates processing, audiences are salient, and information ecologies encourage selective trust. In health psychology, these dynamics help explain the persistence of vaccine hesitancy and health misinformation despite deliberation. We outlined countermeasures that realign deliberation toward accuracy, including accuracy prompts/incentives, identity-safe and value-concordant framing (including self-affirmation), structured symmetric scrutiny, probabilistic forecasting with feedback, prebunking, and interventions that recalibrate source reliability.
Conclusion
System 2 is not inherently corrective: when identity stakes dominate, deliberation can intensify bias. Health interventions should reduce threat, align values, and incentivize accuracy to curb misinformation.
- Kahneman D. Fast and Slow Thinking. Allen Lane and Penguin Books; New York: 2011.
- Stanovich KE, West RF. Advancing the rationality debate. Behav Brain Sci. 2000;23(5):701-717. doi: 10.1017/S0140525X00623439
- Kunda Z. The case for motivated reasoning. Psychol Bull. 1990;108(3):480-498. doi: 10.1037/0033-2909.108.3.480
- Taber CS, Lodge M. Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs. Am J Polit Sci. 2006;50(3):755-769. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00214.x
- Kahan DM, Peters E, Wittlin M, et al. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nat Clim Change. 2012;2(10):732-735. doi: 10.1038/ nclimate1547
- Kahan DM. Misinformation and identity-protective cognition. Yale Law & Economics Research Paper. 2017;(587).
- Kahan DM, Peters E, Dawson EC, Slovic P. Motivated numeracy and enlightened self-government. Behav Public Policy. 2017;1(1):54-86. doi: 10.1017/bpp.2016.2
- Ecker UKH, Lewandowsky S, Cook J, et al. The psychological drivers of misinformation belief and its resistance to correction. Nat Rev Psychol. 2022;1(1):13-29. doi: 10.1038/ s44159-021-00006-y
- Bago B, Rand DG, Pennycook G. Fake news, fast and slow: Deliberation reduces belief in false (but not true) news headlines. J Exp Psychol Gen. 2020;149(8):1608-1613. doi: 10.1037/ xge0000729
- Pennycook G, Rand DG. Lazy, not biased: Susceptibility to partisan fake news is better explained by lack of reasoning than by motivated reasoning. Cognition. 2019;188:39-50. doi: 10.1016/j.cognition.2018.06.011
- Mercier H, Sperber D. Why do humans reason? Arguments for an argumentative theory. Behav Brain Sci. 2011;34(2):57-74. doi: 10.1017/ S0140525X10000968
- van Veen V, Krug MK, Schooler JW, Carter CS. Neural activity predicts attitude change in cognitive dissonance. Nat Neurosci. 2009;12(11):1469-1474. doi: 10.1038/nn.2413
- Westen D, Blagov PS, Harenski K, Kilts C, Hamann S. Neural bases of motivated reasoning: an FMRI study of emotional constraints on partisan political judgment in the 2004 U.S. Presidential election. J Cogn Neurosci. 2006;18(11):1947-1958. doi: 10.1162/ jocn.2006.18.11.1947
- Cullen CM, Sanders HM, Chung KC. It Is Time to Rethink Our Approach to Bias in Medicine. Plast Reconstr Surg. 2025;155(5):745- 752. doi: 10.1097/PRS.0000000000011915
- Tay SW, Ryan PM, Ryan CA. Systems 1 and 2 thinking processes and cognitive reflection testing in medical students. Can Med Educ J. 2016;7(2):e97-e103. doi: 10.36834/cmej.36777
- Damnjanović K, Novković V, Pavlović I, Ilić S, Pantelić S. A Cue for Rational Reasoning: Introducing a Reference Point in Cognitive Reflection Tasks. Eur J Psychol. 2019;15(1):25- 40. doi: 10.5964/ejop.v15i1.1701
- Sunstein CR. Hazardous Heuristics. Univ Chic Law Rev. 2003;70(2):751-782. doi: 10.2307/1600596
- Simis MJ, Madden H, Cacciatore MA, Yeo SK. The lure of rationality: Why does the deficit model persist in science communication? Public Underst Sci. 2016;25(4):400-414. doi: 10.1177/0963662516629749
- Persson E, Andersson D, Koppel L, Västfjäll D, Tinghög G. A preregistered replication of motivated numeracy. Cognition. 2021;214:104768. doi: 10.1016/j.cognition.2021.104768
- Stagnaro MN, Tappin BM, Rand DG. No association between numerical ability and politically motivated reasoning in a large US probability sample. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2023;120(32):e2301491120. doi: 10.1073/ pnas.2301491120
- Strömbäck C, Andersson D, Västfjäll D, Tinghög G. Motivated reasoning, fast and slow. Behav Public Policy. 2024;8(3):617-632.
- Tappin BM, Pennycook G, Rand DG. Rethinking the link between cognitive sophistication and politically motivated reasoning. J Exp Psychol Gen. 2021;150(6):1095-1114. doi: 10.1037/ xge0000974
- Cho J, Cokely ET, Ramasubramanian M, Allan JN, Feltz A, Garcia-Retamero R. Numeracy does not polarize climate change judgments: Numerate people are more knowledgeable and knowledge is power. Decision. 2024;11(2):320- 344. doi: 10.1037/dec0000223
- Lodge M, Taber CS. The Rationalizing Voter. Cambridge University Press; 2013.
- Schaffner BF, Luks S. Misinformation or Expressive Responding? What an Inauguration Crowd Can Tell Us about the Source of Political Misinformation in Surveys. Public Opin Q. 2018;82(1):135-147. doi: 10.1093/poq/nfx042
- Festinger L. A theory of social comparison processes. Hum Relat. 1954;7(2):117-140. doi: 10.1177/001872675400700202
- Harmon-Jones E, Mills J, eds. Cognitive Dissonance: Reexamining a Pivotal Theory in Psychology. 2nd ed. American Psychological Association; 2019. doi: 10.1037/0000135-000
- Nickerson RS. Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises. Rev Gen Psychol. 1998;2(2):175-220. doi: 10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175
- Lieder F, Griffiths TL. Resource-rational analysis: Understanding human cognition as the optimal use of limited computational resources. Behav Brain Sci. 2020;43:e1. doi: 10.1017/S0140525X1900061X
- O’Connor C, Weatherall JO. The Misinformation Age: How False Beliefs Spread. Yale University Press; 2022.
- Swire-Thompson B, Lazer D. Public Health and Online Misinformation: Challenges and Recommendations. Annu Rev Public Health. 2020;41:433-451. doi: 10.1146/ annurev-publhealth-040119-094127
- Lois G, Tsakas E, Yuen K, Riedl A. Tracking politically motivated reasoning in the brain: the role of mentalizing, value-encoding, and error detection networks. Soc Cogn Affect Neurosci. 2024;19(1):nsae056. doi: 10.1093/ scan/nsae056
- Pennycook G, Epstein Z, Mosleh M, Arechar AA, Eckles D, Rand DG. Shifting attention to accuracy can reduce misinformation online. Nature. 2021;592(7855):590-595. doi: 10.1038/ s41586-021-03344-2
- Pennycook G, Rand DG. Accuracy prompts are a replicable and generalizable approach for reducing the spread of misinformation. Nat Commun. 2022;13(1):2333. doi: 10.1038/ s41467-022-30073-5
- Biddlestone M, Roozenbeek J, Suiter J, Culloty E, van der Linden S. Tune in to the prebunking network! Development and validation of six inoculation videos that prebunk manipulation tactics and logical fallacies in misinformation. Polit Psychol. 2025;46:1858-1886. doi: 10.1111/pops.70015
- Maertens R, Roozenbeek J, Simons JS, et al. Psychological booster shots targeting memory increase long-term resistance against misinformation. Nat Commun. 2025;16(1):2062. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-57205-x
- Roozenbeek J, van der Linden S, Goldberg B, Rathje S, Lewandowsky S. Psychological inoculation improves resilience against misinformation on social media. Sci Adv. 2022;8(34):eabo6254. doi: 10.1126/sciadv. abo6254
- van der Linden S, Kyrychenko Y. A broader view of misinformation reveals potential for intervention. Science. 2024;384(6699):959-960. doi: 10.1126/science.adp9117
- Lord CG, Ross L, Lepper MR. Biased assimilation and attitude polarization: The effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence. J Pers Soc Psychol. 1979;37(11):2098- 2109. doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.37.11.2098
- Kraft PW, Lodge M, Taber CS. Why People “Don’t Trust the Evidence”: Motivated Reasoning and Scientific Beliefs. Ann Am Acad Pol Soc Sci. 2015;658(1):121-133. doi: 10.1177/0002716214554758
- Lord CG, Lepper MR, Preston E. Considering the opposite: A corrective strategy for social judgment. J Pers Soc Psychol. 1984;47(6):1231-1243. doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.47.6.1231
- Bonica A. Mapping the Ideological Marketplace. Am J Polit Sci. 2014;58(2):367- 386. doi: 10.1111/ajps.12062
- Mason LH. Partisan Sorting and Behavioral Polarization in the American Electorate. 2012. Available from: https://ssrn.com/ abstract=2105031 [Last accessed on July 13, 2022].
- Spry A. Identity in American Politics: A Multidimensional Approach to Study and Measurement. Columbia University; 2018. doi: 10.7916/D8C26CWM
- Pennycook G, McPhetres J, Zhang Y, Lu JG, Rand DG. Fighting COVID-19 Misinformation on Social Media: Experimental Evidence for a Scalable Accuracy-Nudge Intervention. Psychol Sci. 2020;31(7):770-780. doi: 10.1177/0956797620939054
- Beck M, Ahmed R, Douglas H, et al. Motivated Reasoning and Risk Governance: What Risk Scholars and Practitioners Need to Know. In: Gattinger M, ed. Democratizing Risk Governance: Bridging Science, Expertise, Deliberation and Public Values. Springer International Publishing; 2023:29-53.
- Toplak ME, West RF, Stanovich KE. The Cognitive Reflection Test as a predictor of performance on heuristics-and-biases tasks. Mem Cognit. 2011;39(7):1275-1289. doi: 10.3758/ s13421-011-0104-1
- Pilgrim C, Sanborn A, Malthouse E, Hills TT. Confirmation bias emerges from an approximation to Bayesian reasoning. Cognition. 2024;245:105693. doi: 10.1016/j. cognition.2023.105693
- Akerlof GA, Kranton RE. Economics and identity. Q J Econ. 2000;115(3):715-753.
- Akerlof GA, Kranton RE. Identity Economics: How Our Identities Shape Our Work, Wages, and Well-Being. Princeton University Press; 2010. doi: 10.1515/9781400834181
- Prior M, Sood G, Khanna K. You cannot be serious: The impact of accuracy incentives on partisan bias in reports of economic perceptions. Q J Polit Sci. 2015;10(4):489-518.
- Lenz GS. Follow the Leader? How Voters Respond to Politicians’ Policies and Performance. University of Chicago Press; 2012.
- Mayhew DR. Congress: The Electoral Connection. Yale University Press; 2004.
- Lois G, Tsakas E, Riedl A. Facts over partisanship: Evidence-based updating of trust in partisan sources. J Exp Psychol Gen. Published online August 21, 2025. doi: 10.1037/xge0001815
- Henderson L, Gebharter A. The role of source reliability in belief polarisation. Synthese. 2021;199(3):10253-10276. doi: 10.1007/ s11229-021-03244-y
- von Sydow M, Merdes C, Hahn U. The Temporal Dynamics of Belief-based Updating of Epistemic Trust: Light at the End of the Tunnel? arXiv preprint arXiv:191213380. 2019.
- Evans JSBT, Stanovich KE. Dual-Process Theories of Higher Cognition: Advancing the Debate. Perspect Psychol Sci. 2013;8(3):223- 241. doi: 10.1177/1745691612460685
- Frederick S. Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making. J Econ Perspect. 2005;19(4):25-42. doi: 10.1257/089533005775196732
- Lodge M, Taber CS. The Automaticity of Affect for Political Leaders, Groups, and Issues: An Experimental Test of the Hot Cognition Hypothesis. Polit Psychol. 2005;26(3):455-482. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9221.2005.00426.x
- Slovic P, Finucane M, Peters E, MacGregor DG. Rational actors or rational fools: implications of the affect heuristic for behavioral economics. J Socio-Econ. 2002;31(4):329-342. doi: 10.1016/S1053-5357(02)00174-9
- Cohen GL, Aronson J, Steele CM. When Beliefs Yield to Evidence: Reducing Biased Evaluation by Affirming the Self. Pers Soc Psychol Bull. 2000;26(9):1151-1164. doi: 10.1177/01461672002611011
- Fein S, Spencer SJ. Prejudice as self-image maintenance: Affirming the self through derogating others. J Pers Soc Psychol. 1997;73(1):31- 44. doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.73.1.31
- Sherman DK, Cohen GL. The Psychology of Self‐defense: Self‐Affirmation Theory. In: Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. Vol 38. Academic Press; 2006:183-242.
- Downs A. An Economic Theory of Democracy. Harper and Row; 1957.
- Kuran T. Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification. Harvard University Press; 1998.
- Noelle-Neumann E. The Spiral of Silence a Theory of Public Opinion. J Commun. 1974;24(2):43-51. doi: 10.1111/j.1460- 2466.1974.tb00367.x
- Epton T, Harris PR, Kane R, van Koningsbruggen GM, Sheeran P. The impact of self-affirmation on health-behavior change: A meta-analysis. Health Psychol. 2015;34(3):187-196. doi: 10.1037/hea0000116
- Feygina I, Jost JT, Goldsmith RE. System Justification, the Denial of Global Warming, and the Possibility of “System-Sanctioned Change”. Pers Soc Psychol Bull. 2010;36(3):326- 338. doi: 10.1177/0146167209351435
- Mellers B, Ungar L, Baron J, et al. Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament. Psychol Sci. 2014;25(5):1106-1115. doi: 10.1177/0956797614524255
- van der Linden S, Leiserowitz A, Rosenthal S, Maibach E. Inoculating the Public against Misinformation about Climate Change. Glob Chall. 2017;1(2):1600008. doi: 10.1002/ gch2.201600008
